White paper · Scope 3 Category 1

Your Scope 3 baseline is probably off by 40 to 80 percent. Here is what to do about it.

For most shipowners, Purchased Goods and Services is the largest unaddressed source of supply-chain emissions, and the one with the weakest data behind it. The spend-based method is accepted under the GHG Protocol, but the uncertainty it carries is becoming a material problem under CSRD, CBAM, and tightening charterer requirements.

±40-80%
Uncertainty range on spend-based estimates for maritime procurement categories
5 suppliers
Account for roughly 50% of estimated Category 1 emissions in our case study
2 of 20
Largest suppliers had publicly available product carbon footprint data
−20 to −50%
Expected shift in category totals when moving to supplier-specific primary data
Why now

Three regulatory and commercial pressures are converging on the same outcome.

A higher data-quality standard for Scope 3 is no longer optional. Spend-based estimates are increasingly seen as a starting point that must come with a documented improvement plan.

CSRD · ESRS

Reporting specificity is rising

From 2025 onwards, in-scope companies must report Scope 3 emissions with increasing specificity. ESRS require operators to explain their data quality and credible improvement plans.

CBAM

Supply-chain carbon is becoming priced

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism creates precedent and political momentum for supply-chain carbon accounting across sectors, well beyond the products it directly covers.

Charterers & cargo owners

Buyers expect supplier data

Large cargo owners are embedding Scope 3 supplier data requests into procurement and tendering. Spend-based estimates are no longer considered sufficient by leading buyers.

The 2024 GHG Protocol consultation included submissions calling for the spend-based method to be phased out as a primary calculation approach. The direction of travel is toward supplier-specific verified data.

The problem with spend-based factors

A USD figure multiplied by a sector average tells you very little.

The spend-based method multiplies what you pay each supplier by an Environmentally Extended Input-Output (EEIO) factor for that supplier's sector. The structural sources of uncertainty add up quickly.

Sector aggregation

One EEIO factor covers an entire sector. Pumps, cranes, safety gear, and electronics share the same number, despite very different emission profiles.

No geographic resolution

A Chinese yard and a Norwegian one appear identical in a global EEIO table, despite large differences in grid carbon intensity and process efficiency.

No product differentiation

Spend-based factors cannot distinguish a low-carbon product variant from a conventional one. Supplier improvements stay invisible in your numbers.

Price and currency noise

Input-output tables update infrequently. Inflation and FX movement inflate spend without changing physical volume, distorting the emission estimate.

Illustration: marine paints

A shipowner spends USD 1,862,873 with a marine paints supplier. The EEIO factor for the paints sector is 0.59 kg CO₂ per USD. The estimated emission is approximately 1,099 t CO₂e.

That figure says nothing about whether the paint is water-based or solvent-based, produced with renewable energy, or carrying a third-party verified EPD.

SpendUSD 1,862,873
EEIO factor0.59 kg CO₂ / USD
Estimate≈ 1,099 t CO₂e
Case study

A real mid-sized European shipowner. Where the emission risk actually sits.

Anonymised analysis of a single fiscal year, mixed fleet. Spend figures in USD. Calculations follow the GHG Protocol Corporate Value Chain Standard, with EEIO-based emission factors per account category.

Total OPEX analysed
USD 46.3m
Active suppliers
362
Estimated emissions
8,057 t CO₂e
Method
EEIO · IPCC AR5

Emissions by procurement category

CategorySpend (USD)Emissions (t)ShareIntensity (kg/USD)Uncertainty
B2 · Vessel — Technical11,510,2452,652.732.9%0.230±55%
B0 · Vessel — Provisions2,356,1111,967.424.4%0.835±60%
B8 · Dry-Dock9,921,6021,966.124.4%0.198±65%
B1 · Vessel — Stores3,794,3641,371.217.0%0.361±50%
B5 · Vessel — Crew2,320,939281.63.5%0.121±40%
B7 · Vessel — Misc1,738,733198.02.5%0.114±70%

Provisions (B0) and Dry-Dock (B8) carry the highest emission intensity per USD. Technical (B2) carries the largest absolute volume due to breadth of spend.

Top 5 suppliers account for half of total Category 1 emissions

Emission risk is concentrated. That makes targeted supplier engagement tractable, rather than overwhelming.

1 · Maritime catering & provisions
1,896.8 t
2 · Marine paints & coatings
872.0 t
3 · Drydock facility (Asia)
441.0 t
4 · Drydock facility (Asia)
406.6 t
5 · Ship supplies & stores
267.7 t
Largest contributor (no public PCF)Has third-party EPD

Of the 20 largest suppliers by estimated emission volume, only 2 had publicly available product carbon footprint data as of March 2026. Most have active sustainability programmes and net-zero commitments, but no product-level emission values that could replace the spend-based estimate.

What changes with primary data

Modelled directional shifts when spend-based estimates are replaced.

Based on GHG Protocol Technical Guidance on uncertainty, EEIO validation studies, and category-specific analysis. The current baseline of 8,057 t may be closer to 4,000–5,600 t once primary data lands. The difference affects target credibility, intensity metrics, and your position in charterer assessments.

B0 · Provisions

Food sourcing is rarely as processed as the EEIO sector average.

−30 to −50%
Expected shift
Spend-based ±60% → PCF ±15%. Food sector EEIO factors overweight processed goods.
B1 · Stores

Water-based coatings carry materially lower footprints.

−20 to −40%
Expected shift
Spend-based ±50% → PCF ±20%. Published EPDs from major coating suppliers show lower footprints than averages.
B2 · Technical

European manufacturers carry lower footprints than global averages.

−25 to −45%
Expected shift
Spend-based ±55% → PCF ±15%. EEIO uses global averages where geography matters.
B8 · Dry-Dock

Asian and European yards differ substantially in grid intensity.

−30 to −60%
Expected shift
Spend-based ±65% → PCF ±20%. Current EEIO treats yards identically regardless of location.

Why this matters for baseline integrity. A company cannot claim credit for supplier decarbonisation it cannot measure. If a key supplier switches to a lower-carbon product, or a drydock installs renewable energy, the spend-based method will never capture it. The numbers simply do not move.

A practical path

From hotspot analysis to primary data in 12 to 18 months.

Engaging fifteen to twenty suppliers realistically covers 70–80% of the emission footprint with primary data. The remaining tail continues on spend-based methods, with documented data-quality narrative for CSRD reporting.

PHASE 01 · Q1–Q2

Hotspot & scoping

Run the Category 1 hotspot analysis. Identify the 5–20 supplier targets. Set the baseline data-quality narrative for CSRD reporting.

PHASE 02 · Q2–Q3

Critical-supplier onboarding

Engage the top five suppliers. Provide PCF tooling. Replace spend-based estimates for the largest concentrations with primary or supplier-specific data.

PHASE 03 · Q3 onward

Broaden coverage

Extend to the next 10–15 suppliers. Document the improvement plan. Report progress in line with ESRS data-quality expectations.

GHG Protocol guidance. Scope 3 data quality improves over time. The key obligation is transparency about current quality and a credible improvement plan. A documented transition from spend-based to supplier-specific data is both defensible and demonstrably better than a static spend-based approach.
Maritime Environmental Footprint Initiative
Industry collaboration

ReFlow contributes to IMEF under the IMPA SAVE program.

The International Marine Purchasing Association's SAVE program is the industry's effort to align responsible procurement and environmental data. The IMPA Maritime Environmental Footprint (IMEF) Initiative gives shipowners, suppliers, and charterers a shared, activity-based standard for product carbon footprint, built on GHG Protocol, ISO 14067, and PACT Pathfinder 2.0 foundations.

Working within IMEF means the data you collect is portable across buyers, not built for a single client.

Visit the IMEF initiative
How ReFlow helps

From spend-based estimates to verified primary data, for both sides of the supply chain.

We work with shipowners and their key suppliers to replace sector averages with product-level emission factors aligned with IMEF. Verified results feed into ClimateBase, our growing database of supplier-specific maritime emission factors.

For shipowners

Hotspot analysis & engagement

We map your Category 1 footprint, identify the suppliers that determine your baseline, and guide the engagement programme to bring primary data into your reporting.

  • Spend export to hotspot map in two weeks
  • Supplier prioritisation by emission weight
  • CSRD-aligned data-quality narrative
  • Defensible transition plan with milestones
For suppliers

PCF tooling that buyers accept

We help maritime suppliers calculate IMEF-aligned product carbon footprints in a format charterers and shipowners accept. Better data, fewer ad-hoc requests, stronger commercial position.

  • Cradle-to-gate PCF per product
  • PACT Pathfinder 2.0 export ready
  • Audit-ready documentation
  • Path from one product to a full catalogue
ClimateBase

Maritime emission factor database

Verified PCFs feed into ClimateBase, our supplier-specific maritime emission factor database. The result is fewer assumptions across the industry, not just inside one company's reporting.

  • Product-level factors with provenance
  • Geographic and process resolution
  • Standard format, portable across buyers
  • Updated as suppliers decarbonise
Methodology & standards we work to

Built on the standards the maritime industry is converging on.

Calculations follow established frameworks. GWP conversion uses IPCC AR5 (CO₂ = 1, CH₄ = 28, N₂O = 265). Variance estimates are directional and based on published GHG Protocol Technical Guidance and EEIO uncertainty literature.

GHG Protocol Corporate Value Chain (Scope 3)GHG Protocol Technical GuidanceESRS E1ISO 14067PACT Pathfinder 2.0IMPA SAVE · IMEFIPCC AR5 GWPs

Climate data that you can trust

ReFlow was founded to transform environmental performance with data-driven, AI-assisted life-cycle analysis — empowering better climate decisions.
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